GIS and the World 2013: No Worries, or Is the Sky Falling?

Art Kalinski

Talking to GIS managers over the past several months, I’ve heard a lot of hand wringing from many regarding the future and I share much of the concern. We seem to be at loggerheads on the budget or lack thereof, taxes, energy, gun control and many other issues that make optimism difficult to maintain. For those of you that haven’t faced lean budgets, the next few years may get difficult. GIS operations are especially vulnerable since many politicians don’t really understand “that technical stuff” like GIS, and that GIS doesn’t cost money — it saves money, and even more important, it saves lives.

There is a general misconception among non-GIS people and politicians that we don’t need our own geospatial operation, we can just use Google. In some cases, like planning a trip, that may be true, but for many of your organizations that may not be enough. One example that struck close to home when I was the GIS manager for the Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC) was a failed drug raid in one of our counties. The drug dealers were clever enough to switch house numbers with the house next door. When the SWAT team raided the wrong house, based only on Google Maps and the house number, the resulting lawsuit of the innocent family cost the county thousands even though no one was hurt.

People have to be educated that Google’s key purpose is to drive traffic to its website and sell advertising. Google is not intended to be an authoritative source, and reading the terms of use, one finds special Federal Use Restrictions and “FAR and DFARS provisions.” Google is intended for “planning purposes only” and “makes no representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or completeness of any content.”

Many of you are involved in creating the content that others, including Google, use. Google uses data from more than 12 federal agencies and augments them with commercial data. However, only your staff can determine your exposure to inappropriate use or incomplete data. At ARC, we spent considerable effort constantly updating our street base so planners and 911 call centers had the latest data. Many of those updates took over a year to make to Google Maps.

I learned through countless budget and reorganization battles that you have to be prepared with hard numbers, data and documentation to back up your position. There is nothing more gratifying than to pull out a stack of documents that completely shuts down your opponent’s unsubstantiated “opinion” during one of these battles. But this takes forethought and preparation. GIS professionals must constantly work to build data that shows a “return on investment (ROI).” ROI may be a common concept in the business world, but it’s not used as frequently in government service. We need to be ready at all times to show in real terms how GIS impacts our organization and how it helps improve efficiency. The easiest way is to accumulate and remember needed documentation, to collect it as you operate day to day by placing emails or other information into a physical or electronic drawer. That way you can pull out needed documentation on short notice and not miss key points.

As depressing as this potential damage control may sound, I’m very optimistic long term for the country, the planet and GIS. The real numbers seem to fly in the face of the “doom and gloom media” who only sell content covering plane crashes rather than successful landings. Recently John Stossel had a program in which he featured the noted author Matt Ridley who introduced his newest book, The Rational Optimist. Reading his book I was very encouraged by his research. Put in a nutshell, he cites that despite the depressing picture painted by the media, life is better for more people than it has ever been in history. Inflation-adjusted prices for goods and services are lower in all categories with the exception of health care and education. In his analysis he uses labor as cost measure. In the 1900s, an average person spent 76 percent of his income on food, clothing and shelter. In 2012 that number is down to 37 percent. That means more disposable income for fun stuff.

The environment is generally cleaner and life expectancies continue to rise. The chance of a world citizen dying in a war, disease or famine continues to fall. As a senior citizen I can confirm many of his points through personal experience and observations. Take transportation: In 1960, gas was 32 cents a gallon and my dad bought a brand new fully loaded Chevy Impala for a whopping price of $3,000. Today, both are 10 times higher but so are salaries. With regard to the environment, in 1950 I remember my mother having to scrub my dad’s white shirt collars and cuffs after only a few hours of wear in a coal-dust and soot-infused Chicago atmosphere. I know of no U.S. city that dirty today. When I was Naval Officer on a destroyer going through a 1974 overhaul in Brooklyn, New York, my sailors would have daily wagers as to the number, type and size of sewage objects that would float past the ship as they worked. Two years ago when I was in New York near the East River, I was surprised at the clarity to a depth of several feet of that same water.

Note this dramatic photo from the New York City Municipal Archive of Grand Central Station taken in 1930. It’s a beautiful photo, but it also shows the heavy particulates in the 1930 air reflecting the sunlight.

We in the GIS community can point with pride to the work we’ve done to make life better for everyone. When I was building street center-line files in the early 90s, I never dreamed that those simple files combined with GPS and cell-phone technology would be providing me with surprisingly accurate maps and imagery, including street level photos and turn-by-turn voice navigation, all delivered to my small cell phone. I no longer struggle with phone books and maps trying to find businesses. I just talk into my smartphone to get phone numbers and least cost routing, including traffic jam avoidance to businesses. It would be interesting to calculate how much fuel the GIS community has saved FedEx, UPS or public schools running a fleet of buses with optimal routing.

Google Earth has become a universal tool to find what you need along with directions, user opinions and alternate choices. I no longer go anywhere without reviewing the route, business hours and imagery. Today, buying a home and learning about neighborhoods, prices, schools, transportation is a breeze compared to 20 years ago. Regional planning including environment, agriculture and providing county services has been significantly helped with GIS. Just consider the effectiveness of police and fire responding to 911 calls.

The intelligence community has moved from analysis of static low-resolution ortho imagery to integration of multiple imagery, full motion video and incorporation of “big data” / social media to create pattern-of-life analysis. We can only speculate how many lives have been saved with this advanced intelligence and how the technology will evolve and improve over the next 10 years.

And that was the key point of Ridley’s book. That it takes a collective human intelligence and division of labor to raise the standard of living for all citizens. He used as an example a simple computer mouse. That small device that you are probably holding in your hand is the result of the intelligence and work of thousands of people ranging from the oil rig workers getting the oil to make the plastic, to mathematicians, engineers and chemist to design the parts and create the IC chips, to assembly-line workers putting the parts together, to a ship’s crew, truckers and retailer that got it to you and all that at a price of only a few dollars. Imagine building one from scratch with no outside assistance.

Even more amazing is how fast the learning curve has become. In just a few decades we’ve made more progress than the previous 50,000 years and the curve seems to be increasing. GIS has been part of that process and I look forward to an even better decade ahead.

I’m going to attend the ESRI Federal User’s Conference Feb 25-27.  Please introduce yourself if you see me (my bald head is easy to spot) and let me know how we can improve our publications.