UAV updates

Photo: Archer Aviation

Is it possible that we have already oversold the potential — or at least the timing — for when we expect operational electrical vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) air taxis? United, Delta, Southwest, and other airlines seem intent on being part of the coming air taxi game, but locking up future potential without anything delivered could be risky.

Now, this eVTOL stuff is not cheap, and it does not come quickly—it takes a massive amount of investment and effort to create a new mode of air transport, especially if it could be wholly or even partially autonomous. Most eVTOL outfits have decided to launch initially with a piloted option, leaving autonomy for later.

The initial stages of the development process involve reviewing the designs, followed by vetting and selecting subcontractors. A strategic plan is then established to develop a few operational prototypes. Alongside this, a firm strategy must be created to ensure compliance with agency regulations, resulting in the demonstration of proof of concept.

The process could be accelerated with a piloted airframe derived from a proven baseline, but eVTOLs are a new concept. Although partially derived from UAVs, eVTOLs differ significantly from existing aircraft. UAVs are not big enough to carry passengers and have not received approval to transport people. True, the automation angle has taken significant steps forward in recent years, but certifying that these systems will always operate correctly, without minimal chance of failure while flying over city centers and over many, many people – well, that’s another coat of many colors! Let’s just say these are BIG STEPS to initiate a new form of air transportation.

Nevertheless, despite the excitement and seemingly optimistic timelines for achieving FAA or other regulatory approval for fully operational eVTOL aircraft capable of safely transporting passengers, most major airlines have already committed to significant purchases and investments in this technology.

United Airlines conditionally committed to buy 200 Archer Aviation Midnight eVTOL aircraft for $1 billion in early 2021, added an option of $500 million for another 100, and recently took more partial ownership when Archer pursued a public listing through a merger with Special Acquisition Company (SPAC) Atlas Crest Investment Corp.

Archer has been moving its aspirations in several other directions while it works closely with the FAA to achieve certification of the Midnight eVTOL. Notably, the company has been granted a Part 135 Air Carrier and Operation certification by the FAA, which allows Archer to operate a for-profit airline with not only the Midnight eVTOL but also existing commercial aircraft, presumably including helicopters. Using other aircraft in the interim could allow Archer to prove out routes before having operational eVTOLs available and generate revenue. United and Archer have already selected at least one initial route in Chicago, from the city center to O’Hare airport.

Archer has also been busy signing up partners in Korea. Demonstrations are planned for Q4 2024 and in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and other locations across the UAE. The forecasting service will start in late 2025.

Back in the U.S., Southwest Airlines — another Archer investor — is also working with the company on the West Coast to develop routes around population centers in California. Archer has signed up with a local developer to establish Vertiports, locations with suitable ground access for passengers, landing/take-off and rapid charging facilities for eVTOL aircraft and existing helicopters. Southwest plans to install these stations at five locations: South San Francisco, Napa, San Jose, Oakland, and Livermore.

Another agreement with Signature Aviation is designed to provide Archer with access to general aviation terminals and electrical supply for eVTOL operations in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco Bay Area, and Texas, including United Airline hubs at Newark International (EWR) and Chicago O’Hare (ORD) Airports, as soon as the end of 2025, almost the exact date that United expects to start eVTOL passenger ferry services to and from O’Hare.

Stellantis has also invested around $150 million in Archer, plus another $55 million in June 2024, as the two work on establishing a high-volume 350,000 sq ft eVTOL manufacturing facility in Georgia. A new agreement between the two companies brings additional investment, intended to take the facility to a yearly build output of 650 eVTOLs.

Photo: Joby Aviation

Unlike United, Delta Airlines and Joby Aviation aim for door-to-door service, intending to pick up passengers at their own homes and bring them directly to Delta at the airport. With fewer, larger propellers, Joby claims a top speed of 200 mph, compared to Midnight’s 150 mph. Apparently, both Midnight and the Joby eVTOL have a passenger capacity of one pilot plus four passengers.

Another significant June 2023 investment in Joby was reported to have come from SK Telecom (SKT) in Korea, which made an equity investment of $100 million in Joby. The Korean government is promoting aerial ride-sharing through a phased demonstration program, for which the partners signed up to participate in early 2022. Joby was also certified to be a Part 135 air carrier almost two years earlier than Archer.

Both Archer and Joby have already delivered eVTOL aircraft to the U.S. Air Force (USAF) for on-base evaluation. The USAF has been promoting eVTOL development for some time, not only for on-base logistics but also, apparently, evaluation for front-line resupply operations.

Eve eVTOL rolls out and is joining the flight test program. (Photo: Eve Air Mobility)

Eve Air Mobility has received significant investment from aircraft manufacturer Embraer in Brazil, and Toyota is supporting high-volume manufacturing. This year, contact was made with Air-X in Japan to buy ten aircraft with options for 40 more—just one customer of several who have placed Letters of Intent to buy over 3,000 Eve eVTOL aircraft. United Airlines is another one of those customers who also placed a conditional order for 200 Eve eVTOL and options for another 200 aircraft back in 2022.

This is a very short overview of just a few of over 200 potential eVTOL-piloted and autonomous UAV manufacturers that have turned into passenger-carrying air taxis. The partial investment story behind these companies and their air-mobility adventures indicates that even though it is going to be quite some time before these aircraft start to hop over cities to airports – making a potential two-hour journey in 10-15 minutes at the exact projected cost as existing ride-sharing, a lot is riding on a successful outcome. Maybe United’s duel track investment in both Archer and Joby will also ensure that one or the other will bear fruit. These few outfits we’ve reviewed have a long way to go, but their investing partners seem to have accepted the risk and have faith that their long-term roll of the dice will end up in their favor.