Tablets Galore, But Apple May Still Ship 40 Million iPads Next Year

Industry analysts estimate that Apple will sell as many as 43.7 million iPads in 2011. Apple reported it shipped 4.2 million iPads in the third quarter, ending September 25. This has certainly created chaos in the tablet computer business that has been relatively quiet for more than a decade. Predictably, with Apple shipping these kinds of numbers, it has stimulated other manufacturers and spawned a tremendous number of “iPad Killers” that have been introduced or are being introduced soon.

From a geospatial point-of-view, the tablet war is not over. In fact, it’s barely begun. I’ve touched on this subject before, but it’s worth another look. The tablet hardware is only one facet of geospatial users adopting tablet computers in a big way. The other, of course, is application software. Having a tablet computer without application software is sort of like having a desktop computer without office software (e-mail, word processor, spreadshet, database, presentation) to use with it. Without application software, a tablet computer (or any computer for that matter) is just an expensive paperweight.

With reportedly up to 13 million iPads projected to be shipped by the end of 2010, it seems like we should be seeing them cropping up everywhere in geospatial applications. Unless I’m missing something, that doesn’t seem to be the case. Of course, I know many people who own an iPad and swear they are the greatest things since doorknobs, but very few, if any that I know, are using them for serious geospatial applications. It begs the question “Why?”

The answer is simple: lack of geospatial application software.

Why is there a lack of geospatial application software?

Developing and maintaining software for public consumption is an expensive endeavor. No matter your attitude is about Microsoft, Microsoft Windows made it a lot easier and less expensive to develop application software. There are literally tens of thousands of software tools that developers can buy for Windows to make it easier to develop application software. Furthermore, the market for computers running Windows is a lot bigger than for any other operating system (Linux, Unix, MacOS, etc.). Many software companies can’t financially justify developing and maintaining applications for more than one operating system. Of course, in that case developers will invariably choose the Windows platform because that’s the biggest market.

The iPad (and iPhone and iPod) run an operating system called iOS. From a software developer standpoint, it’s not even close to Windows. Basically, it must be developed from scratch. Yuck.

Let’s say you’re a company that’s developed software for mobile GIS. Most likely, you’ve developed it for Windows/Windows Mobile platform because that’s what the customers are using. Now, let’s say the iPad/iPhone/iPod devices become a hot commodity like they have. Certainly, as a software developer, you’re debating whether to start developing for the iOS operating system. That’s not an easy decision. In fact, for a smaller company, it can literally be a make-or-break gamble that could sink a small software company if the wrong decision is made.

So, if you had a piece of software written for Windows, at what point would you consider spending tens of thousands of dollars (maybe more) to port the application to iOS? The cost is not only in developing the software application, but also in supporting and maintaining the software. Given the nature of the geospatial software industry (mostly comprised of small companies), it’s not hard to see why there is reluctance to take the plunge. Esri has made the argument for iOS a little more compelling with the introduction of its iOS API, which is a toolkit that makes it easier for software developers to write geospatial applications for the iOS platform.

Imagine if the iPad was running Windows or Windows Mobile. There would be hundreds of geospatial apps running on it by now. But that’s dreaming, and of course, Windows would run like a turtle on the iPad hardware. The iPad wasn’t designed with a lot of CPU horsepower for general computing.

What’s becoming more evident is that the success of the iPad has spawned a new generation of tablet computers in all different shapes and sizes. Some have been introduced, and some are yet to be introduced. Some are running Windows, but many are running other operating systems. Here are a few:

1. Asus EP-90 (8.9″ display running Windows)

2. Archos 9 (8.9″ display running Windows, also models running Android)

3. Acer Tablet (10.1″ display running Windows, also a model running Android)

4. Samsung Galaxy S (7″ display running Android)

5. Blackberry Playbook (7″ display running Blackberry OS)

6. Dell Streak (5″ and 7″ displays running Android)

7. LG Tablet (10.1″ display running Windows or Android). Available only in Korea at this time.

8. Viliv X70 (7″ display running Windows)

9. Neofonie WePad (11″ display running Linux/Android)

As you may have noticed, it’s not just a iOS vs. Windows debate. Google’s Android operating system is making a big splash, too. I read an article recently that surveyed application developers. Among other things, developers opined that whereas iOS had the most short-term upside, they saw the Android operating system having the most significant long-term upside. Secondly, when the developers were asked which is the most “open” platform, they voted for Android by far. However, this survey was slanted towards smartphone developers who are developing for the consumer market. Those apps have a much broader audience and market base than specialized geospatial apps.

Since more and more iPad-like tablets running Windows are being introduced, I suspect that in the short term, most geospatial application developers will take the path of least resistance and support Windows-based platforms before making the jump to iOS or Android, if they do at all. Furthermore, with the Windows Phone 7 operating system introduced just last month, this strengthens the case for Windows on mobile devices for geospatial apps.

Thanks, and see you next week.

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