How soon a driverless car? You be the judge

May 5, 2017  - By
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How soon will driverless cars achieve 20 percent market share in the United States?

This is the question in GPS World’s Readers Poll for May.

In 2020? 2022? 2025?

Or 2028? Maybe 2030.

Road-Driverless-WHow about 2032?  2035 or after?

Finally, the ever-popular “Other (please specify).”

Go to gpsworld.com/17maypoll and fill in your answer by May 12.

See results in the June issue.

All poll takers will be entered in a drawing for a $50 gift card.

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Meanwhile, here’s a preview of the V2V Countdown article from the May issue, introduced by Chaminda Basnyake, an engineer at Locata Corporation:

The U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) released a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) in December 2016 for the deployment of Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC)-based vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) safety applications as part of the connected vehicles (CV) and automated vehicles (AV) initiative. If all goes well, this mean a V2V deployment mandate for new passenger vehicles likely starting in 2021 and reaching all new vehicles within 2–3 years.

Standards required for V2V deployment were published in 2016 or before, including the V2V Minimum Performance Requirements SAE 2945/1, leading the way for commercial product development. The USDOT, which has been the catalyst behind V2V industry R&D starting from the automaker collaboration CAMP (Crash Avoidance Metrix Partnership) in 2001, is conducting CV Pilot programs in New York, Wyoming and Florida. These offer the opportunity for state DOTs, vendors and all other stakeholders to test the technology in real-life scenarios.

Automotive OEMs have been developing this technology for more than a decade, and the NPRM is the beginning of a race toward integrating V2V to production vehicles. Deploying V2V technology requires the close cooperation of OEMs, their suppliers and many other stakeholders.

This article captures the views of major players in the CV marketplace on expected deployment timelines, remaining challenges such as reliable positioning technology, integration with existing systems, and the implications on AV technology.

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